A mental model that encourages looking beyond immediate outcomes to anticipate the chain of events and effects that follow from an action.
Second-Order Thinking is a way of looking at things on a deeper level, by anticipating the series of likely events beyond the immediate or direct outcomes. It is based on the belief that every action has a consequence and every consequence has another consequence. This approach allows you to anticipate potential pitfalls and can create more robust strategies. For instance, consider the idea of a city banning cars in an effort to reduce pollution. First-order thinking might stop at the expected reduction in smog. But second-order thinking looks beyond this to anticipate other likely outcomes: perhaps an increase in bike and pedestrian traffic, a boom in ride-share services, mounting pressure on public transportation infrastructure and perhaps the relocation of commuters to nearby towns with access to cars.
When we don't consider second and subsequent order consequences, we get surprised. - Ray Dalio
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