Second-Order Thinking: Anticipating Unintended Consequences
A mental model that encourages looking beyond immediate outcomes to anticipate the chain of events and effects that follow from an action.
Second-Order Thinking is a way of looking at things on a deeper level, by anticipating the series of likely events beyond the immediate or direct outcomes. It is based on the belief that every action has a consequence and every consequence has another consequence. This approach allows you to anticipate potential pitfalls and can create more robust strategies. For instance, consider the idea of a city banning cars in an effort to reduce pollution. First-order thinking might stop at the expected reduction in smog. But second-order thinking looks beyond this to anticipate other likely outcomes: perhaps an increase in bike and pedestrian traffic, a boom in ride-share services, mounting pressure on public transportation infrastructure and perhaps the relocation of commuters to nearby towns with access to cars.